| Overview : A. Background Meeting the aspiration of leaving no one behind, as reflected in the 2030 Agenda, calls for fundamentally new approaches to tackling poverty, vis-a-vis those pursued during the MDG era. The MDGs called for a reduction in the extreme poverty rate by half. Therefore, to meet this target, it was not of much concern if some people were sliding back into poverty, as long as more were moving out at a rate that enabled a country to cut poverty by half. In a country, or region, with a net poverty reduction of 2%, 12% of the population could be falling into poverty (mostly as a result of shocks, from disasters linked to natural hazards, to crop diseases, in the rural setting for which this data was collected). Leaving no one behind implies that we need to understand how and why people fall back into poverty – the aspiration is to leave no one behind all the time, not only for a while. According to the most recent estimates, 12.7 percent of the world’s population lived at or below $1.90 a day in 2012, down from 37.1 percent in 1990. Progress has been slower at higher poverty lines. Over 2.1 billion people in the developing world lived on less than US $ 3.10 a day in 2012, compared with 2.9 billion in 1990 –a poverty reduction rate about half as fast as at lower poverty thresholds.[1] A key reason why higher threshold poverty reduction –especially in middle income countries—slows down is that the dynamics of poverty eradication involve both moving out of poverty, and keeping individuals and households from sliding back in. In the Philippines, poverty shows a declining trend from 1991 to 2003. The poverty incidence (or the proportion of individuals whose annual income falls below the annual poverty threshold) during this period has been reduced especially between 1994 and 1997 when the country had experienced a relatively high economic growth (i.e., 5.33 percent GDP growth). However, poverty incidences in 2006 and 2009 had generated an increase at 26.4 percent and 26.5 percent, respectively, from 24.9 percent in 2003. The worsening poverty situation in the country may be attributed to the lingering effects of the food and fuel price hikes, global financial crisis, natural calamities such as typhoons and conflict in the Southern Philippines. Recent research in Latin America reveals two stylized facts that help to address this challenge. First, household determinants of “moving out of poverty” are systematically different from determinants of “sliding back in”. Recent research shows that moving-out is correlated with education levels and labor market characteristics, while sliding-back is correlated with lack of social protection, absence of systems of care and lack of physical and financial assets or a combination of all of the above.[2] Second, in the high-growth years, the “sliding back” rate runs between 13% and 14% of households who have left poverty, but can affect a much larger proportion of the population in low-growth years.[3] Taken together, these stylized facts suggest that accelerating poverty reduction meeting the aspiration of leaving no one behind implies an understanding of the dynamic process of moving in and out of poverty, with policy interventions that strengthen the resilience of individuals and households.[4] This involves a push on policy drivers of poverty eradication which span labor markets, education, social protection, systems of care and access to financial and physical assets. In this policy research, the approach piloted in Latin America shall be extended to the Philippines. UNDP will provide support to engage a National Consultant to analyze determinants of moving in and out of poverty and provide recommendations to accelerate poverty reduction in the Philippines. This initiative also responds to the Philippine government’s commitment to further reducing poverty as reflected in the socio-economic roadmap in strengthening agriculture and enterprises, and providing investments in human capital. B. Objectives and Scope of Work The key objective of this policy research is to provide evidence-based recommendations to manage the risk families and people sliding back into poverty. The analysis will proceed in these steps: - First, an analysis of the household determinants of moving in and out of poverty –using household surveys (matched in synthetic panels), and following the probit models described in Abud, Gray Molina and Ortiz-Juarez (2016). This part of the analysis will provide probability estimates for factors that slow or accelerate poverty eradication.
- Second, analysis of the policy drivers behind the dynamics of moving in and out of poverty. These start by mapping policy interventions that would provide a “basket of interventions” to address net poverty eradication –including active labour policies, social protection policies, systems of care, and access to assets.
Where feasible, depending on data availability and technical capacity, microsimulation exercises to estimate the effect of closing gaps in social protection, systems of care or access to assets over poverty reduction trajectories. These projections will provide a useful benchmark for policy work on SDG achievement. C. Expected Deliverables This SDG tool will provide a critical input for effective national poverty strategies to meet the aspiration of leaving no one behind and enable progress across multiple SDGs by mitigating the risks of people falling back into poverty. Policy-makers will gain an evidence-based understanding of the determinants that enable, or protect, people from sliding-back-into poverty. A set of recommendations is expected. The recommendations will indicate the type of interventions needed to prevent people falling back into poverty. Tied to the expected outcome, the National Consultant is expected to deliver the following: - A 20-page country report
- Analysis and policy recommendations resulting in a 5-page pages policy brief for national authorities and technical staff of relevant departments
- Presentation of findings.
D. Methods/Data and Pre-requisites The key pre-requisite for this research are readily available national household surveys, preferably over a ten- or fifteen-year period. The second pre-requisite for a country to engage is to have a national human resource well versed in econometrics techniques. The first step is to construct synthetics panels using at least two household datasets, following a shared method. The second step is to build a transitions matrix for each country. In time 1, the matrix includes households under the $4/day poverty line, the 10/day vulnerability line and the $50/day middle class line. In time 2, the matrix includes households that have moved from one group to another (both downward and upward). The third step involves estimating a probabilistic model of determinants of transitions. The final step is to estimate the marginal contributions of each policy variable on the probability of moving in or out of poverty. E. Budget, Work Plan and Timeframe The National Consultant will work with the UNDP Country Office and coordinate with a team at the UNDP Headquarters over a three-month period. The consultant shall lead in the recommended steps of the SDG Tool :1) construction of panels or synthetic panels; 2) quantitative analysis using panel data; and, 3) analysis of transition matrix and determinants. F. Institutional Arrangement During every engagement, the National Consultant shall report directly to and under the guidance of the UNDP Country Director, and working closely with the Head of the Management Support Unit. The National Consultant’s work shall also be guided by the UNDP BPPS and the International Consultant for the Project. Where necessary, the National Consultant may also be required to participate in meetings with implementing and/or development partners with potential communications/civic engagement opportunities. G. Duration of the Work The Project is expected to be valid from November 2016 to January 2017. H. Duty Station This is an output-based Contract. The National Consultant will not be required to report regularly or be present at UNDP Country Office, but may, as deemed necessary, be required to present to the Management Team any of the deliverables prior to final approval. I. Qualifications of the Successful National Consultant Education: - Advanced degree in Economics
Working Experience: - At least fifteen (15) years of experience in the field of economics and substantive knowledge on poverty and social statistics/measurements
- Excellent analytical skills as demonstrated by prior involvement in developing methodologies and publications on poverty, economic and social issues indicators and measurement;
Language Requirements: - Excellent writing, editing and oral communications skills in English is required
- Fluency in other UN languages is an asset
J. Competencies - Demonstrates integrity by modeling the UN’s values and ethical standards;
- Promotes the vision, mission, and strategic goals of UNDP;
- Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity and adaptability;
- Treats all people fairly without favoritism;
- Expertise in data collection and analysis
- Ability to work under pressure and tight deadlines;
- Strong analytical and research skills; and
- Excellent organizational, and communication skills;
K. Scope of Price Proposal and Schedule of Payments At any given time that the services are required, the National Consultant will be requested to submit a technical and financial proposal in full consideration of the services requested, which will be subject to UNDP evaluation. Final acceptance of each output by the Country Director shall be required as basis for the disbursement of every corresponding payment. 20% - upon signing contract 40% - Upon submission of draft country report 40% - Upon submission of final country report with validated analysis and policy recommendations, and standard presentation for the Government (i.e., NEDA) and development partners L. Criteria For Selection Process The offer will evaluated based on the Combined Scoring method – where the qualifications and methodology will be weighted a max. of 70%, and combined with the price offer which will be weighted a max of 30%. M. Application Requirements - Duly accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability that indicates the all-inclusive fixed total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, as per template provided
- Personal CV or P11, indicating all past experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;
Application requirements should be emailed to procurement.ph@undp.org and registry.ph@undp.org on or before 24 November 2016. [1] See World bank (2016). http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/ [2] See Abud, Maria Jose, George Gray Molina and Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2016, “Out-of-Poverty and Back-to-Poverty Transitions using Panel Data”, RBLAC Working Paper No. 1, New York: UNDP. [3] See UNDP, forthcoming, Multidimensional Progress: Well-Being Beyond Income, Latin American and Caribbean Human Development Report, New York: UNDP. [4] See UNDP, 2016, “Ending Poverty by 2030: UNDP’s Perspective and Role”, Issues Brief March 2016, New York: UNDP. | 
