Brief description

  The key objective of the project is to model a set of scenarios identified by DFFE and analysed using their in-house integrated model, which reach net zero CO₂  emissions by mid century,

   using the SATIMGE model.

   The key outcomes of this work include the long-term emissions pathways for each scenario and an assessment based on the scenario results of a) the allocation of sectoral emissions

   targets for each sector consistent with each scenario emissions pathway; and b) the identification of measures which are required to achieve the SETs and national pathways, within the

   model framework. The analysis will encompass all the components of SATIMGE.

 I.                KEY TASKS TO BE PERFORMED

The service provider will undertake the following activities:

·       To propose and agree on the broader modelling parameters (base year, baseline, time horizon of assessment, description of emission scenarios, policies and measures to be assessed, socio-economic parameters to be evaluated, co-benefits to be quantified, key model drivers, sectors and emissions sources to be evaluated, aspects to factor out, packaging of results), as available in the current version of SATIMGE.

·       Identify the key GHG mitigation levers, which are key activities that drive the reduction of GHG emissions in each sector, resulting in net zero CO₂ by 2050 across the economy.

·       Undertake a modelling analysis using SATIMGE which replicates the scenarios identified by DFFE and analysed using the DFFE’s in-house model.

·       Identify the associated sectoral emissions trajectories in each scenario, and the associated measures required.

 It is expected that a multidisciplinary team or consortium, under firm formation will be required to successfully undertake this work. The successful service provider will have but not necessarily limited to the following competencies.

• In-depth working on developmental issues in South Africa and working on complex strategic issues to the socio-economic challenges of the country.
• In-depth experience and track record in developing climate change mitigation models, particularly for scenario analysis and mitigation pathway development.
• In-depth experience and track record in using SATIMGE for long-term scenario analysis.
• In-depth familiarity with climate policy in South Africa, especially in the Energy, Transport, Land, Agriculture, and Waste sectors.
• Very good project management skills.
• Proven experience working on climate change mitigation analysis across Energy, IPPU, Waste and AFOLU sectors.
• Very good analytic, communication, and report writing skills.