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National Consultant for Modelling the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Crisis in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM)
Procurement Process :IC - Individual contractor
Office :UNDP Country Office - PHILIPPINES
Deadline :22-Apr-20
Posted on :15-Apr-20
Development Area :SERVICES  SERVICES
Reference Number :65062
Link to Atlas Project :
00112294 - SDG Localization:Local gov'ts leapfrogging into 21st cen
Overview :

Project Background:

 

BARMM Context

In 2019, the BARMM Government was inaugurated with the hope of enabling meaningful self-governance towards lasting peace in the region. One year later, the new regional government finds itself in the midst of a crisis. The COVID-19 crisis has brought significant pressures to social, economic and political systems in the Philippines, and perhaps more deeply in BARMM. Following the national government’s declaration of a state of public health emergency, the BARMM government convened its own Inter-Agency Task Force on COVID-19 and enforced community quarantine measures. As of 31 March 2020, BARMM has registered a total of six (6) confirmed cases, 202 persons under investigation (PUI), and 7,291 persons under monitoring (PUM).[1]

 

COVID-19 Crisis in BARMM

 

Globally, COVID-19 crisis has started as a health crisis and has already evolved into an economic crisis and gradually becoming a human development crisis. It has started to bring severe impacts on large number of countries and populations, and the Philippines is not an exemption. Of the different regions in the Philippines, it is the BARMM that can be identified as one of the most vulnerable regions relative to the impact of COVID-19. Existing vulnerabilities include high poverty incidence in provinces comprising the BARMM (2 provinces in the BARMM, Lanao del Sur and Sulu, are considered as the poorest provinces in the country), limitations in community access to health facilities and services, and inadequate access to information and communication in geographically-isolated and disadvantaged areas. These vulnerabilities are further exacerbated by emerging issues that may be linked to heightened transmission risks of COVID-19 in BARMM communities. Reports have highlighted the needs, not only of PUMs and PUIs, but also of families experiencing hunger due to inability to earn income due to closures and lack of access to basic goods and services.

If not responded urgently and appropriately, the COVID-19 crisis can undermine the progress of the Bangsamoro government in ensuring peace and stability in the region. In support of the BARMM government, UNDP Philippines seeks to understand the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis in BARMM as well as the measures needed to support the most vulnerable groups covering short, medium- and long-term strategies.

The assessment will be undertaken across two (2) phases: Phase 1: Rapid Assessment through Social Accounting Matrix/Input-Output Model; and, Phase 2: In-depth Analysis of sectors using CGE modelling. The results of the assessment initiatives are expected to feed into the development of a socio-economic recovery plan for BARMM.

The assessment will need to be closely coordinated with relevant BARMM ministries, the Mindanao Development Authority, national and regional government agencies, as well as other potential stakeholders that are currently involved in discussions around response and recovery in the region. Also, the assessment will need to be rapid in nature to allow for an immediate design and delivery of response measures to reduce adverse impacts at the community and household levels. Assessment initiatives will also need to examine effects of the COVID-19 crisis on marginalized and vulnerable groups within BARMM, and potential social protection measures for these groups.

[1] From BARMM Ministry of Health COVID-19 Updates as of 8:00pm, 31 March 2020

 

Scope of Work and Expected Outputs and Deliverables

The National Consultant will work closely under the overall supervision of the UNDP Resident Representative and the direct supervision of UNDP Outcome Leads for Institutions and Partnership and Peace. To aid, the Consultant shall work with a BARMM Consultant. Also, the National Consultant will work in close collaboration with the BARMM Government, national and regional government agencies, and other UN agencies.

The scope of work for this assignment will be largely around the following key functions:

  • Coordination with key stakeholders, such as BARMM Government, national and regional government agencies, and UN agencies;
  • Planning and conduct of economic modelling initiatives in BARMM;
  • Scoping of the current responses of the BARMM Government to COVID-19; and,
  • Formulating policy recommendations to mitigate negative impacts of the COVID-19 crisis in the communities in BARMM.

For this assessment, the following are the specific deliverables:

PHASE

DELIVERABLES

LEVEL OF EFFORT

Phase 1: Rapid Assessment of COVID-19 crisis in BARMM

  • Inception report including methodology and detailed implementation plan;
  • Undertake rapid assessment of COVID-19 crisis in BARMM;
  • Draft assessment report including key findings and recommendations; and,
  • Final assessment report incorporating comments from UNDP and other stakeholders.

15 working days

Phase 2: In-depth analysis of sectors most affected of the COVID-19 crisis

  • Undertake an in-depth analysis of the most affected sectors;
  • Draft report including key findings and recommendations;
  • Final report incorporating comments from UNDP and other stakeholders.

15 working days

Methodology

The socio-economic impact assessment should follow a multi-pronged approach to identify the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 crisis in BARMM. Meanwhile, relevant data can be obtained in different ways including (i) secondary data from the BARMM ministries and/or agencies, and local government units; and (ii) qualitative information from relevant stakeholders. For the rapid assessment, one of the approaches that can be used will be the Social Accounting Matrix/Input-Output Model. Analysis should also examine effects on both economic and social indicators, such as sectoral growth, investment, employment, poverty and hunger, health and education, among others. Analysis should also include fiscal implications of the crisis since there might be an increase in government’s expenditures due to mitigating measures. Finally, the National Consultant shall work with the BARMM consultant in mapping-out the BARMM government and local government units’ responses on COVID-19 and recommend policy options broken down into two categories – (i) short-term measures and (ii) medium-long term measures

 

Institutional Arrangements

For the duration of the contract, the National Consultant shall report to the UNDP Philippines Resident Representative in the delivery of the terms of reference. Reporting is output-based, and deliverables must be submitted to UNDP Outcome Leads for Institutions and Partnerships and Peace. Outputs are subject to quick peer review to be established by UNDP Philippines (one (1) UNDP Regional Economist, one (1) BARMM official, (1) national expert). Similarly, the final outputs should be formally accepted by the Resident Representative, UNDP Philippines before the payment is made. It is expected that the National Consultant shall inform the UNDP Team of the schedule with government agencies, non-government organizations and local government units for the meetings and consultations. UNDP Team, both at the Country Office and the Cotabato Field Office, can also assist the National Consultant in setting up meetings and liaising with BARMM ministries, Mindanao Development Authority and other key stakeholders.

Duration of Work, Duty Station and Travel

The National Consultant shall be engaged for 30 working days. Effectivity of the engagement will be upon signing of the contract and will be valid until all outputs have been delivered and accepted. The target start-of-work date is 27 April 2020 and the expected completion date is 15 June 2020.

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic and declaration of State of Public Health Emergency in the Philippines, all work of the National Consultant shall be done within the guidelines and protocols set by the local government. During the quarantine period, the National Consultant shall NOT ENGAGE in any meetings or activities OUTSIDE THEIR HOMES. Coordination/meetings shall be done through phone or online communication until such time that the quarantine is lifted. This is STRICTLY a HOME-BASED assignment; NO TRAVEL IS REQUIRED for the National Consultant to complete their abovementioned tasks.

Related costs for the engagement shall be borne by the National Consultant and should be included in the Consultant’s Offer Letter.

Competencies:

Corporate

  • Demonstrates integrity by modelling UN mission, vision, values and ethical standards;
  • Displays cultural, gender, religion, race, nationality and age sensitivity, and adaptability; and,
  • Promotes UNDP’s agenda in meetings.

Other Competencies

  • Ability to work in close collaboration with a group of national and international experts, to meet strict deadlines and plan the work according to priorities;
  • Demonstrates capacity to plan, organize and execute effectively;
  • Initiative, good analytical skills, mature judgement and ability to work under tight schedule while respecting deadlines and achievement, ethics, and honesty;
  • Ability to establish effective working relations in a diverse environment;
  • Consistently approaches work with energy and a positive, constructive attitude
  • Build strong relationships with internal and external clients;
  • Demonstrated ability to function in a team environment and to deal with complex multi-stakeholder environment;
  • Good ability to use information and communication technologies as tools and resources; and,

Excellent written communication and presentation/public speaking skills, focus on results, ability to interact productively in a teamwork environment.

Qualifications

Only applicants who meet each of the criteria and score a minimum of 70 out of 100 obtainable points will be shortlisted and evaluated. Please make sure your CV/Personal History Form reflects compliance with the following criteria:

 

Qualifications

     Points Obtainable

Education

Master’s Degree in Economics, Statistics, Social Studies, or any related field.

(Master’s- 14 points; PhD- 20 points)

                20

Experience

At least 10 years of relevant research experience in the areas of impact assessment, rural development, policy evaluation, modelling, and econometrics;

(18 points for 10 years; 23 points for 11-15 years, 25 points for 16 years and above)

 

               25

At least 10 publications relevant to socio-economic impact assessment;

(11 points for 10 publications, 1 additional point for additional publication)

                         15

At least 3 years experience in design and implementation of impact assessment methodologies

(7 points for 3 years; 10 points for 4 years and above)

                          10

At least 3 years experience in development and implementation of response and recovery/resilience programmes.

(7 points for 3 years; 10 points for 4 years and above)

                          10

At least 8 years of relevant work experience in government and/or multilateral development organization.

(14 points for 8 years; 17 points for 9-10 years; 20 points for 11 years and above)

                           20

TOTAL

                       100

 

Scope of Price Proposal and Schedule of Payments

The National Consultant should send a financial proposal based on lump-sum amount for the delivery of the outputs identified below. The total amount quoted shall include all costs of components required to deliver the goods and services identified above, including professional fees and any other applicable costs (i.e. medical insurance, transportation/travel to and from residence for meetings within Metro Manila and BARMM, supplies and materials, communications, etc.) to be incurred by the National Consultant in completing the assignment.

Medical/health insurance must be purchased by the individual at his/her own expense, and upon award of contract, the consultant must be ready to submit proof of insurance valid during contract duration.

The contract price will be fixed output-based price. Any deviations from the outputs and timelines will need to be agreed upon between the National Consultant and UNDP. Travel shall be included in the financial proposal.

Payments will be done upon satisfactory completion of the deliverables by target due dates. Outputs will be reviewed and certified by the Team Lead –Institutions and Partnership and Peace Teams of UNDP, prior to release of payments. Furthermore, contracts will only be issued subject to the confirmation that National Consultant is covered under personal health/medical and other insurances.

Phase 1

Deliverables

Due Date

Tranche Payment

(% of Total Contract Amount)

Phase 1: Rapid Assessment of COVID-19 crisis in BARMM

 

-         Inception Report

27 April 2020

20%

-         Final Report

27 May 2020

20%

Phase 2: In-depth analysis of sectors most affected of the COVID-19 crisis

-         Draft Report

5 June 2020

40%

-         Final Report

15 June 2020

20%

 

 

Recommended Presentation of the Offer

Interested bidders must submit the following:

1.       Duly accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability, using the template provided by UNDP;

2.       UNDP Personal History Form (P11) or Curriculum Vitae indicating all past experiences from similar projects or requirements, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references;

3.       Financial proposal that indicates the all-inclusive fixed total contract prices, supported by a breakdown of costs as per UNDP template provided and clearly stating payment percentage.

Templates for a) P11 Personal History Form and b)  Offeror's Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability and Financial Proposal are available through the link below. UNDP General Terms and Conditions for Individual Contractors  are also available:

http://gofile.me/6xdJm/bE9TCw8fU

 

Criteria for Selection of Best Offer

Applications from qualified candidate will be desk reviewed by the UNDP Philippines’ evaluation committee. Assessment of best offer will be via Combined Scoring method—where the qualifications (see above table for Qualifications and scoring) will be weighted 70% and the financial proposal (price offer) will be weighted 30%.

 

Please submit your application through the following link:

https://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_job.cfm?cur_job_id=91295

Offerors must upload in one (1) file the Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability, UNDP Personal History Form (P11) or Curriculum Vitae, and Financial proposal that indicates the all-inclusive fixed total contract prices.

 

Please see deadline of submissions above.