Procurement Notices

UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPPEMENT PROGRAMME

TERMES OF REFERENCE

Information

Position Title:                        International consulting firm : GEF Climate Change Adaptation

Location:                               Home-based with 2 missions in Bissau (first mission of 8 days and a second

mission of 5 days)

Additional Category:             Energy and Environment

Type of contract:                   Professional contract

Post Level :                            International consulting firm

Languages required:              English and French

Duration of initial contract:    50-person weeks spread over the period 1st April 2019 to 30th November

                                               2019      

Expected duration of assignment: 45 persons weeks spread over the period 1st April 2019 to 31st  December 2019      

1. Background

Guinea-Bissau consistently ranked among the most vulnerable countries in West Africa. The primary drivers of Guinea- Bissau’s climate vulnerability are physical exposure, dependence on agriculture and fishing. Guinea Bissau is a rural country in which agriculture, forestry, fishing and livestock farming accounted for 49.1% of GDP in 2013[1]. The economic wealth of Guinea-Bissau bases essentially in its natural capital. According to the World Bank (EDMUNDSON, H. 2014) estimation, the total of the country's natural wealth, including minerals as bauxite and phosphate, fishing, wood, fertile lands and rich ecosystems, can reach 3,874 US American dollars per capita. The renewable natural resources, such as agricultural lands (for cultivation and pastures), fishing (traditional, of collection of mollusks, workmanship, industrial and sport), forests (firewood and wood, Non-woody Forest Products, capture of carbon), habitats and protected ecosystems represent more than 90% of Guinea Bissau wealth[2]. Even by African standards, little industry exists in Guinea-Bissau. Most of the population (about 82 %) work as subsistence farmers[3] in an agriculture sector that is undeveloped and is largely based on rudimentary technology. Furthermore, the agriculture sector is dominated by the cashew nut monoculture. Over the past three years, cashew nuts have dominated Guinea-Bissau’s agriculture and national exports. In 2013, cashew nut production generated 11.9% of the country’s GDP and cashew sales accounted for 87.7% of total exports. According to the World Food Programme, 80% of those living outside the city of Bissau currently make their living from cashew nuts, which they use to trade for rice and other staple products. This can lead to a crippling dependence on a single crop for entire communities, putting their livelihoods and even their ability to feed themselves at the mercy of the harvest and of international cashew prices. The fisheries which also plays a vital role for Guinea-Bissau’s government, with fees for fishing licenses providing 35 percent of government revenue[4] is also vulnerable to climate change. Climate change is predicted to have adverse effects on fisheries and fishing. Rising sea temperatures, changes in circulation, acidification and loss of nursery areas, are predicted to reduce fish populations. Meanwhile, in places with rich fisheries like Guinea-Bissau, the destruction of coral reefs and mangroves destroys fish spawning grounds, decreasing the availability of fish, limiting the livelihoods of fishermen, and leading to precarious food security.

Additionally, low-elevation coastal zones stands out as Guinea-Bissau’s indicator of physical vulnerability. Most of Guinea-Bissau’s terrain consists of coastal swamps and mangroves, and over 19 percent of its land area lies in areas less than 10 meters above sea level[5].  Increased flooding and saltwater intrusion due to global sea level rise could potentially affect these areas. Climate change has already begun to affect coastal farmers through saltwater intrusion into their rice paddies[6].  Because of this, farmers who can no longer grow rice have shifted into cashew production[7]. Like many of its West African neighbors, Guinea-Bissau faces rainy seasons and long dry seasons, with abrupt transitions. The West African monsoon that characterizes the region’s climate is less stable than its eastern counterpart, and long droughts such as those that affected the area during the 1970s and 1980s are possible[8]. Northern Guinea-Bissau borders the Sahel region. And anecdotal evidence suggests that the long droughts that characterize the Sahel may be spreading to this region[9]. Guinea-Bissau is also subject to climate related disasters risk, such as floods, storms, droughts grasshoppers’ attacks, diseases epidemics (cholera, meningitis, and malaria), sea accidents due to increasing sea surges, such as shipwrecks of fishermen canoes that cause significant material damages and loss of lives. In recent years, the following loss data of past decates indicates that Guinea Bissau has experienced an increase both in frequency and in intensity of climate related disasters. For example, i) the epidemic of cholera in 2008 that has affected 105,380 people including 3,032 dead; ii) the drought between 1987 and 2009 that affected 132,000 people; iii) the floods that has affected 1,750 people in 2007, the  tropical cyclones caused 2,712 victims in 2009; the locust invasion in 2005[10].

These climatic trends and their impacts observed during these last decades will more likely be exacerbated, according to climate projections. General circulation model (GCM) project an increase in mean annual temperature between 1.1 to 3.0ºC by 2060 (SNC, 2011). The IPCC AR 5 (2014) indicates that under a range of scenarios, the Sahel and West Africa are projected to be hotspots of climate change and unprecedented changes in climate will occur earliest in these regions, by the late 2030s to early 2040s. The AR5 projections indicate that temperature in West Africa will rise by between 3°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century under a range of scenarios. Furthermore, the AR5 projections indicate that many global models indicate a wetter main rainy season with a small delay in the onset of the rainy season by the end of the 21st century. Also, regional modelling suggest an increase in more intense and more frequent extreme rainfall events over the Guinea Highlands and Cameroon Mountains. According to the NAPA (2006), INC (2005) and SNC (2011), projections of rainfall suggest an increase in the proportion falling during heavy events, particularly in the late summer and autumn season.

Climate variability and change thus constitute serious challenges for Guinea Bissau’s economic growth and development that must be addressed in order for the country to pursue a sustainable development pathway.

Long term solutions and barriers

To allow Guinea Bissau’s to better manage climate related challenges undermining economic growth and development, it is essential to address a number of pressing challenges. These include the needs to:

·         enhance capacity of hydro-meteorological services and networks for predicting climatic events and associated risks;

·          

·         - Develop a more effective, efficient and targeted delivery of climate information including early warnings to both planners as well as communities living on the fringes of climate induced pressures;

·         - Support improved and timely preparedness and response to forecast climate-related risks and vulnerabilities.

These objectives require developing in-country robust weather and climate observation capability, including now-casting and forecasting infrastructure which can be rapidly deployed, is relatively easy to maintain, and simple to use. Such a weather and climate monitoring system can provide Guinea Bissau with the capacity necessary to develop: (i) an early warning system for severe weather; (ii) real-time weather and hydrological monitoring; (iii) weather forecasting capabilities (Numerical Weather Prediction); (iv) agro-meteorological information and services (including integrated crop and pest management); (v) applications related to building and management of infrastructure; (vi) tailored products for the mining planning and management; (vii) risk informed land, air and maritime transport management; (viii) integrated water resources management; (ix) adaptive coastal zone and land management; and (x) adaptation planning and policy making processes.

However, there are significant policy, institutional, individual, financial, technological and informational barriers that prevent the desired situation from emerging. These barriers include:

Significant gaps in weather and climate monitoring infrastructure: Data and observation capacity with respect to climate change is limited. The meteorological network of the Republic of Guinea Bissau was only of seven (7) synoptic stations, nineteen (19) agro climatic stations and forty rainfall stations before the politico- military conflict 1998 – 1999. Most of these facilities have been destroyed by the politico- military conflict 1998-1999. Today there are only four Meteorological stations (Bissau Airport, Bissau Centre, Bolama-Bijagós, Bafatá e Gabú) currently operational but unfortunately working with very limited capacity. So there is a critical need for modernizing and expending the meteorological network to collect more and better data in a more automated manner.

Limited knowledge and capacity to effectively predict climate change events and assess their sector/area/community specific potential impacts: The scientific and technical capabilities required to effectively identify climate induced hazards such as storms, flooding, droughts, sea surges and climate induced pest and disease outbreaks and forecast their potential impacts on all Guinea Bissau vulnerable communities such as coastal communities, the farmers and fishermen and others are often weak. This is due to a lack of infrastructure hardware and software, human capacity/skills to program and run the models code, or not effectively using forecasts that are available from regional and international centres. Running forecast models requires specialized education and training that are often lacking.  Even when climate information is available (monitoring and forecasts), it is usually not translated into specific hazards experienced by different sectors and users e.g. heat units for agriculture or wave heights for managing coastal shipping. Without translation into information that can be easily understood by users, the information is difficult to use for particular operational decisions.

Inconsistent use of different information sources across and within country borders: There is currently no clear legal mandate for the issuance of warnings. As a result, with multiple sources of information, messages may be confusing and not acted upon. It is therefore necessary to have an official process for generating warnings that include communication with sectoral ministries and communities where disasters are experienced. Meanwhile, calculating risks for known vulnerabilities requires a comprehensive archive of information related to vulnerable communities, infrastructure, roads, shipping, access to markets, flood prone areas, cropping patterns etc. This information is currently held in disconnected databases or computers spread across different government departments and ministries.

All the information required to assess vulnerability and calculate risks needs to be accessible, either through a central database/repository, or through distributed network.

No systematic forecasting of climate hazards, analysis of risks and timely dissemination of warnings and climate risk information: Communication and data processing facilities for meteorological data and derived products are currently not available due to a lack of observing stations, computers and telecommunications equipment. Furthermore, weather and climate forecasts are not regularly produced within Guinea Bissau nor do they take conditions specific to Guinea Bissau into consideration (e.g. combining localized climate hazard information with information on localized vulnerability or environmental factors). Besides a lack of climate risk forecasts, there are no formal or official channels for the dissemination of these forecasts, associated warnings or response strategies that may be employed to mitigate any impacts.

Lack of environmental databases for assessing the risks posed by climate variability and change: The absence of a national environmental database reduces the potential to use weather and climate information for decision-making in different sectors that make up the Bissau Guinean economy. These include planning and investment decisions related to urban and rural development, infrastructure, health, transport, agriculture, and mining and water resources.

1. Duties and responsabilities

The objective of the assignment is to deliver, at due time and with the required quality, the following products: i) the UNDP project document, ii) the GEF CEO endorsement request, aligned with the approved outcomes and outputs, with the required annexes and using the appropriate templates. For this purpose, the team in charge of the PPG will be made up of: 1) a CCA (including DRM) Project Development Specialist (GEF PPG Team Leader), who will play the role of the team leader for the team of consultants; and 2) an International early warning system capacity development specialist, including its climate monitoring infrastructure design and costing; 3) an International agro-hydro-meteorological equipment specialist ; 4) Stakeholder Engagement and Gender National Expert; 5) National expert in meteorology and (6) National expert in hydrology. 

Estimated weeks per experts:

1) CCA Project Development Specialist (GEF PPG Team Leader): 10

2) International early warning system capacity development specialist: 10

3) Agro-hydro-meteorological equipment specialist: 5

4) Stakeholder Engagement and Gender National Expert: 5

5) National expert in meteorology: 10

6) National expert in hydrology: 5

The international consulting firm will work closely with the government specialists and other key stakeholders at the country level and under the supervision of the UNDP GEF and UNDP Country Office in Guinea Bissau. It will be responsible for developing the UNDP Prodoc and the FSP request for GEF CEO endorsement by using the appropriate templates.

Task that the international GEF/STAR Climate Change Adaptation (DRR/M) Project Development Specialist is responsible for may include, but not limited to:

A)   Management of the GEF PPG Team

·         Define and submit a detailed methodology and work plan in consultation with the other consultants with clear delegation of responsibilities for the International Consultants (ICs) and National Consultants (NCs);

·         Ensure that project development is participatory, gender-responsive and based on extensive stakeholder engagements; and

·         Verify and ensure that all project components are technically sound and cost effective.

B)   Preparatory Technical Studies and Reviews (Component A): With inputs from the other national and international consultants, as detailed in their respective TORs:

·         Compile baseline/situational analysis for the full-size project (FSP). This will include a precise definition of baseline projects, activities, budgets, goals and co-financial links to GEF outcomes; definition of GEF incremental value per outcome and output; and presentation of results of the incremental cost-analysis in matrices as appropriate;

·         Oversee the stakeholder analysis and consultations and ensure that they are complete and comprehensive;

·         Ensure the preparation of the gender analysis and ensure its findings are meaningfully integrated into the project’s strategy, theory of change and results framework;

·         Ensure action points, including risk assessments, from the UNDP Social and Environmental Screening Procedure (SESP) at the PIF stage (“pre-screening”) are fully implemented during the PPG, and update that screening in an iterative fashion throughout the PPG, as appropriate;

·         Conduct/oversee the identification of the project sites, with documentation of selection criteria;

·         Oversee the consultations with partners regarding financial planning; and

·         Ensure completion of any additional studies that are determined to be needed for the preparation of the ProDoc and all other final outputs.

C)   Formulation of the ProDoc, CEO Endorsement Request and Mandatory and Project Specific Annexes (Component B): With inputs from the other national and international consultants, as detailed in their respective TORs, and based on international best practice:

·         Develop, present and articulate the project’s theory of change;

·         Develop the Results Framework in line with UNDP-GEF policy;

·         Develop a detailed Monitoring and Evaluation Plan and Budget;

·         Oversee and ensure the preparation of a Stakeholder Engagement Plan;

·         Oversee and ensure the preparation of a Gender Action Plan and Budget;

·         Update the SESP based on assessments undertaken during Component A, and ensure the development of environmental and/or social management plan(s) for all risks identified as Moderate or High in the SESP;

·         Prepare the required GEF tracking tool(s);

·         Secure and present agreements on project management arrangements;

·         Ensure the completion of the required official endorsement letters; and

·         Synthesize all analyses, studies, etc. that are prepared under Components A and B to produce the draft UNDP-GEF ProDoc, GEF CEO Endorsement, and all mandatory and project specific Annexes, using the required templates.[11]

D)   Validation Workshop (Component C):

·         Lead the validation workshop to present, discuss and validate the final draft ProDoc and mandatory and project specific annexes, with a special focus on the SESP and any management plans; and

·         Oversee all necessary revisions that arise during the workshop.

·         Ensure completion of Validation Workshop Report.

E)   Final Deliverables:

·         Consolidation of all technical and consultation inputs including from national stakeholders, UNDP, GEF Secretariat, STAP and GEF Council, into a well written and concise UNDP ProDoc with all required sections and Annexes, in line with the standard UNDP-GEF ProDoc template and annotated guidance;

·         Completion of the GEF CEO Endorsement Request;

·         All documentation from GEF PPG (including technical reports, etc.); and

·         Validation Workshop Report.

The International specialist in early warning system (EWS) capacity development responsibilities will include:

·         Review relevant documents (reports, plans, studies/assessments, academic papers) in Guinea Bissau related to Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster risk reduction/management and civil protection.

·         Assess the existing sectorial early warning system in place and/or under development, covering the following key elements: (1) Risk knowledge, (2) Monitoring and warning service, (3) Dissemination and communication, (4) Response capability, and (3) Governance and institutional arrangements.

·         Meet with key stakeholders in the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Ministry of Transports and Telecommunications, Ministry of Interior, Secretariat of Environment, Institute of Meteorology, Port and Institute Maritime, Institute of Biodiversity and Protected Areas, Cabinet for Coastal Planning and potential project developers, potential donors, local communities and other stakeholders during a brief in-country mission to understand the context challenges that the project design should address.

·         Based on the desk review and stakeholder consultations, and on the PIF findings and considering the experience with similar GEF-financed EWS projects, detail the project scope and design addressing the government needs stated in PIF regarding Components 1, 2 and 3.; this will include suitable technologies/equipment specifications and costing, technologies transfer approach, monitoring structure, capacity development plan, EWS governance, etc.    

·         Review the draft project document and Request for CEO Endorsement in detail in order to fully understand the overall project design and the rationale and expected role of the key stakeholders, and ensure both documents accurately describe the structure and rationale of the final recommended instruments

The International specialist in agro-hydro-meteorological equipment specialist responsibilities include:

·         Discuss with key stakeholders the needed equipment to be recommended to monitor weather and water, including sea level, based on the assessment of the needs made at PIF stage and during the PPG phase implementation in collaboration with Meteorology Institute, Waters National Directorate, Ports and Maritime Institute, Rural Engineering National Directorate, General Direction of Agriculture and any others relevant entities;  

·         Collect and compile information on the agro-hydro-met related equipment in use and which may be required to purchase to fit to the needs of the defined EWS model for Guinea-Bissau.

·          Compile detailed information on additional equipment (brand/make and specifications), which may be required to ensure effective communication of data.

·         Assess the existing procedures and mechanisms in the country for the deployment of hydro-met equipment and the communication of data to central archiving facilities.

·         Draft a procurement plan for procuring the recommended equipment.

The Stakeholder Engagement and Gender National Expert responsibilities will be, among others, prepare inputs and support the required analyses/studies, as agreed with the PPG Team Leader, including:

a.    Lead and advise on the stakeholder analysis and consultations and ensure that they are complete and comprehensive;

b.    Prepare the gender analysis and work closely with the Team Leader to ensure its findings are meaningfully integrated into the project’s strategy, theory of change and results framework;

c.    Support action points, including risk assessments, from the UNDP Social and Environmental Screening Procedure (SESP) at the PIF stage (“pre-screening”) are fully implemented during the PPG, and update that screening in an iterative fashion throughout the PPG, as appropriate; and

d.    Support completion of any additional studies that are determined to be needed for the preparation of the ProDoc and all other final outputs.

e.    Prepare the Stakeholder Engagement Plan;

f.     Prepare the Gender Action Plan and Budget;

g.    Contribute to the updated the SESP, as needed, based on assessments undertaken;

h.    Support the development of environmental and/or social management plan(s) for all risks identified as Moderate or High in the SESP;

i.      Support the agreements on project management arrangements.

j.      Contribute to the validation workshop;

k.    Support all necessary revisions that arise during the workshop, as appropriate.

The national expert in meteorology will:

·         Act as national expert on issues pertaining to the project to support the work of the IC;

·         Collect baseline information for development of an EWS in Guinea-Bissau, focusing on national coverage, existing operational capacity, including equipment and human resources, for climate forecast and agro-meteorological information services provision;

·         Make an inventory of the different meteorology stations operating conditions, data collection and processing and dissemination per each climate regions;

·         Review policies and regulatory frameworks at the national, regional and local levels that aim at promoting development of climate information services and civil protection;

·         Make an inventory of all the past, ongoing and planned projects on DRR/M, CCA and Agrarian Information System, at national, regional and in the project sites;

·         Elaborate on the baseline projects, as discussed in the PIF, and their relevance to the proposed outcomes;

The national expert in hydrology will:

• Produce a comprehensive report on the existing national capacity within the National Directorate of Water resources and others government technical bodies on water resources management to monitor and or forecast disasters such us floods;
• Review policies and regulatory frameworks at the national, regional and local levels that aim at promoting development of sustainable water management practices that prevent water-based disaster and access to clean water;
• Make an inventory of the hydrometric stations operating conditions, and the National Directorate of Water Resources capacity on data collection, processing and  to the end users;
• Elaborate on the baseline projects, as discussed in the PIF, and their relevance to the proposed outcomes;

1. Competencies

·         Excellent team players with good interpersonal skills

·         Ability to manage workload with minimum supervision

·         Ability to work under pressure and tight deadlines

·         Ability to accommodate additional demands at short notice

·         Ability to work in a multi-cultural environment

§  Ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing in French in order to communicate complex, technical information to technical and general audiences

·         Strong strategic planning, results-based management and reporting capabilities

·         Displays cultural, gender, religion, nationality and age se