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Introduction

Dear Sir/Madam,

Amendment Notice 1:

Dear Bidders,

Following the Pre-Bid Meeting online, please find attached the Pre-Bid Meeting minutes.

Pre-Bid Meetings Minutes for taking note of the meeting proceedings and critical discussion points mentioned herein. 

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Scope of the Consultancy:

The Service Provider selected will work closely with the Project Team (particularly the National Agriculture Specialist, the National Platform Coordinator, and two Provincial Agriculture Analysts), Government of Papua New Guinea Technical Partners (particularly the newly created Ministry of Oil Palm) as well as review the existing documents prepared by project experts to implement the activities within the sustainable food production practices and responsible value chains component of the project. The Service Provider will perform following tasks:

• Output 2.2: Targeted Scenario Analysis of Palm Oil development in Papua New Guinea.

Scope 

The Service Provider selected will work closely with the Project Team (particularly the National Agriculture Specialist, the National Platform Coordinator, and two Provincial Agriculture Analysts), as well as review the existing documents prepared by project experts to implement the activities within the integrated landscape management systems component of the project. The Service Provider will perform following tasks:

• Development of Targeted Scenario Analysis for the Oil Palm Sector (Output 2.2)

Outcome 2: Strengthened cooperation and coordination within the Palm Oil sector for enhanced sustainability productivity and investment and reduced land clearance.

Under Output 2.2, the project will work through the Palm Oil Platform to develop a sector scenario analyses for the development of the palm oil sector in PNG. This scenario analysis will help to inform key stakeholders of the potential benefits and challenges of different development pathways and the key enabling factors needed to ensure a sustainable development pathway. Through a fully participatory process the assessments will combine existing information on sector production, economic benefits, certification, sustainability standards, past and future expansion, climate change and market access and pricing to provide information on the potential costs and benefits of different scenarios (through a Targeted Scenario Analysis [TSA] based approach), the key enabling requirements to achieve different approaches and a series of indicative case studies that look in more detail at existing development activities to indicate what future pathways could look like.

Materials developed will also consider how to most effectively engage youth and women within these communities and what impacts the very young demographic will have on future trend. Scenario analyses will also take into account the biophysical suitability of these commodities, such as, soil criteria, precipitation, slopes, elevation, etc. Furthermore, the development of these scenarios will be closely linked with scenario development of West New Britain and East New Britain conducted under Output 1.3 (being developed separately by the Project).

Key Deliverables under Output 2.2 will consist of:

• Case study comparing business as usual (BAU) to sustainable ecosystem management (SEM) for Palm Oil development, using real historic data plus projected future scenarios, based on the Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) methodology.
• Preparation of a short policy brief and action plan document on Palm Oil development for decision makers and communications purposes.

Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA)

UNDP developed Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) to respond to the growing demand from decision makers and stakeholders for effective policy-relevant economic analysis tools to advance productive sectors’ policy reform, and therefore, the national Sustainable Development Goals. 

UNDP's Targeted Scenario Analysis (TSA) offers a practical approach to connecting policy objectives with fit-for-purpose economic analysis. UNDP developed TSA over several years based on an extensive project portfolio review and research supported by leading environmental economists. TSA enables the conversion of economic data into sustainable sector development policy. 

TSA captures and presents the value of ecosystem services to target decision-making, not in a generic, abstract manner. TSA makes a direct comparison between two policy scenarios. First, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in which the status quo conditions, i.e., unsustainable sector management and limited investment, are projected into the future, and second, a so-called sustainable ecosystem management (SEM) scenario. SEM introduces ecosystem and natural capital management improvements into sector development policy and investment. A vital element of a TSA is that it is conducted for a particular productive sector and tailored to the specific objectives of the public or private decision-maker of the targeted sector. Policy scenarios are compared based on a wide range of carefully selected indicators in close consultation with the decision-maker (the TSA client). TSA's focus on a specific decision maker increases the likelihood that the data generated through the research is used to transition into a more effective and efficient allocation of public and private investment; therefore, it improves the sustainable management of natural capital. 

At the end of a TSA, the evidence generated through research provides balanced insights into the advantages and disadvantages of keeping on track with BAU, compared to a change of direction in which the targeted sector manages ecosystems sustainably and effectively. Another critical element that sets a TSA apart from traditional economic valuation or cost-benefit analysis is that TSA shifts away from generating a policy-isolated single static value toward a long-term analysis. Thus, it shows year-to-year changes between the BAU and SEM scenarios by applying key monetary and non-monetary indicators.

As such, the main product of the TSA is a package of policy recommendations supported by the economic evidence applied to each indicator of the benefits of shifting from BAU to SEM. For each policy recommendation, a subset of indicators and graphs illustrates the development of these measurable indicators over time for both policy scenarios. Each TSA graph includes a narrative that clearly states the primary stakeholder for the analysis, an in-depth description of the methods, assumptions, and data sources used to generate the results, and confidence levels and uncertainty associated. Apart from explaining the results depicted in the graphs, there is a clear indication of what those results mean in policy decisions. 

TSA's approach provides information on the results of specific decisions and management practices as a continuous, long-term analysis, showing relative change over time of key monetary and non-monetary indicators rather than a single static value. This approach is instrumental for decision making, as decisions are rarely made based on single numbers in isolation, but rather by comparing at least two policy options over time.

UNDP’s guidance of the TSA approach can be retrieved from this link: https://www.undp.org/facs/targeted-scenario-analysis

Amendment

Dear Bidders, Following the Pre-Bid Meeting online, please find attached the Pre-Bid Meeting minutes. Pre-Bid Meetings Minutes for taking note of the meeting proceedings and critical discussion points mentioned herein.

Documents :

Negotiation Document(s) (Before Accessing other negotiations Document(s), please click on this link)