| Introduction : Through this Negotiation, qualified National Individual contractors or a Company wishing to engage the services of their qualified consultants, are requested to view the terms of reference supporting this solicitation and submit their offers within established deadline.
Country: Angola Description of the Assignment: Building on the GRDP concept note, support the design of the Full Funding Proposal, notably by conducting a climate and risk vulnerability assessment of the GRDP with other international and national consultants, experts, Government counterparts and relevant stakeholders involved in the programme formulation process. This assignment is to complement existing climate related hazard assessments in the targeted countries with climate¿risk and vulnerability assessments and analyses and at sector level to determine the climate baseline scenario and climate rationale in line with GCF requirements for developing a full Funding Proposal. Approach to the climate risk and vulnerability assessments during the PPF stage It is envisaged that there will be 3 layers to achieving both the necessary and sufficient level of detail required for the climate rationale: • National/sub-national: Use/consolidate existing assessments to the extent possible. Existing assessments will be made available (from a gap analysis) • Sector: Use/consolidate existing assessments to the extent possible. Existing assessments will be made available (from a gap analysis) • Asset: Develop methodologies and model the impact of a sample size of adaptation investments in reducing climate risk in order to estimate adaptation impact. It is expected that new modelling will need to be conducted for a sample of pipeline investments. KEY TASKS OF THE ASSIGNMENT Task 1: Conduct initial desk-based consultations and research • Complete an initial desk review of available information regarding climate-related risk and vulnerability assessments, including NCDs, NAPs, relevant studies and data sources. • Based on the database of existing reports and recommendations for new analyses & methodologies (conducted during the gap analysis phase), identify the sectors most exposed to climate risk in each country. • Conduct follow up consultations with key stakeholders regarding findings from information review, proposed recommendation and methodology and agree on scope of analyses (e.g. key hazards and issues, mapping outputs, scale and resolution, gender etc.) as well as on the climate risk and vulnerability analyses. • Present findings and recommendations to key stakeholders. As a complement to the assessment report, prepare a presentation that delivers the assessment findings and recommendations in a simplified manner Task 2: Data collection for climate risk and vulnerability assessment • In consultation with stakeholders and leveraging sources and global risk data aggregation approaches (e.g. Aqueduct, Risk Information Exchange, Climate Risk Index), identify and obtain datasets and other studies that will be needed in the focus countries in order to assess and map climate risk, hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities of assets, supply chains, critical infrastructure, public services, and sectors. Required data will be obtained from all available sources, including: i) open data sources; ii) global and regional climate models (CMIP5/6 , NEX-GDDP, CORDEX etc) available through IPCC and global centres; iii) peer-reviewed and project-related scientific and technical reports (and data when available); iv) National hydrological and meteorological (NHMS) weather/hydrological station data; and v) exposure¿related data (e.g. population, critical assets, buildings and key infrastructure, economic activity, areas and sites of national heritage). Page 3 of 8 Task 3: Develop climate change and socio-economic scenarios & hazard profiles for priority sectors, identify inter¿sectoral dependencies and climate rationale for proposed projects • Using risk information system, modelling tools and consultations, develop climate hazard and impact profiles and observed/expected changes in these profiles over the next 2-4 decades. • Take socio-economic scenarios into account, including the 2021 Voluntary National Review (VNR) and the Integrated SDG Model (iSGD) of Angola. Based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) develop socio-economic scenarios (population distribution, poverty and resilience/adaptation metrics) for each country over the next 2-4 decades. • Based on the scenarios, identify potential multi-hazard, inter-sectoral and inter-national climate related risks that may cause an extreme increase in risks to local populations and national governance. • Develop a hazard profile per sector most at risk. • Organize the data and calculations in the appropriate formats including GIS formats that allow users to combine with other relevant data and to visualize the results. Task 4: Develop the climate rationale • Describe the climate context in each country, including the historical, current and projected climate impacts in sectors most at risk and on vulnerable populations and ecosystems. Analysis should be based on local meteorological data and all models will be validated. The assessment will follow Decision GCF/B.33/05: Steps to Enhance the Climate Rationale of GCF-supported activities (https://www.greenclimate.fund/document/gcf-b33-05), intended to demonstrate the climate impact potential for GCF proposals • Develop a climate rationale for priority sectors and identified regions/hotspots where climate (social, economic, humanitarian) risks are expected to increase. • Establish the adaptation baseline in each country: Identify and select relevant adaptation indicators from GCF’s Integrated Results Management Framework (IRMF) and compile basic information to establish baseline data for selected indicators. Detail how these indicators should be measured during the Project lifespan. The construction of the baseline will follow Decision GCF/B33/04: Guidance on the approach and scope for providing support to adaptation activities (https://www.greenclimate.fund/document/gcf-b33-04). • Identify potential adaptation options for each priority sector to tackle identified climate risks and take advantage of identified opportunities. • Establish the GHG Emissions Baseline Assessment: Identify and select relevant mitigation indicators from GCF’s Integrated Results Management Framework (IRMF) and develop a GHG emissions baseline assessment that elaborates on the climate rationale of the Project. • GHG Emissions Reductions and Removals Calculations: Define a shared method for calculating GHG emissions that can be applied to investments by the GRDP. Using the GHG calculation method(s), estimate the potential GHG mitigation benefits of the GRDP. • Evaluate national scale systemic resilience using available metrics and methods. • Estimate changes in asset values under climate change using available methods e.g. PCRAM. • Undertake economic modelling of the changes in NPV of assets and economic goods/services, as well as estimated IRR of adaptation options identified Period of assignment/services: 45 days over the period March 15 to 30 April Proposal should be submitted directly in the portal no later than indicated deadline. Any request for clarification must be sent in writing via messaging functionality in the portal. UNDP will respond in writing including an explanation of the query without identifying the source of inquiry.
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