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Introduction

Country:  Rwanda

 

Description of the Assignment: Recruitment of an Individual Consultant to Conduct a Youth Forecast Exercise. The objective of this forecast exercise is to anticipate emerging trends, risks, and opportunities that will shape the lives of young Rwandans over the next 5–10 years. By engaging diverse stakeholders and using foresight methodologies, the exercise will generate insights to inform strategic planning, program design, and policy development. It will help ensure that youth focused initiatives, particularly in employment, skilling, entrepreneurship, mental and SR Health, are not only responsive to today’s realities but are also resilient and forward-looking.

 

Period of assignment/services: 30 working days from the contract Signing date 

 

 1.         BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

 Young people today are navigating an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving global landscape. The world is undergoing profound transformations driven by technological innovation, climate change, shifting economic paradigms, and geopolitical instability. Multiple overlapping crises and transformation — from pandemics and conflicts to environmental degradation and economic uncertainty to emerging technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence — are redefining the future of work, education, and civic engagement and reshaping industries and societies at a pace that often outstrips the capacity of institutions to adapt. While these changes offer unprecedented opportunities, they also pose significant challenges for youth, especially in terms of skills readiness, social inclusion, and access to dignified livelihoods. In this context, understanding the aspirations, concerns, and capacities of young people becomes not only urgent but essential for building resilient and future-ready societies. Given those challenges, we must confront the reality that traditional pathways to youth empowerment employment are no longer sufficient. The rapid pace of technological advancement and automation demands a new approach to skilling, one that is both innovative and inclusive.

Rwanda has a youthful population with a median age of 19, where 27.1% (3.6 million) are aged 16–30. While youth represent 65% of the population, challenges persist in unemployment, skill gaps, and limited entrepreneurial opportunities. The unemployment rate for youth is 21%, higher than the national average of 15%, and 40% of youth are neither in employment, education, nor training (NEET). Rural youth face greater challenges, with higher unemployment and fewer opportunities compared to urban peers. Many young people remain in low-productivity agriculture, with 46% engaged in agriculture-related sectors, especially in rural areas. Youth also lack technical and soft skills aligned with labor market demands in sectors like ICT, tourism, and manufacturing, exacerbating employment challenges. Gender disparities further affect youth, with young women facing higher unemployment and NEET rates than men. Vulnerable youth, including rural youth, young women, and youth with disabilities, face unique and intersecting challenges that limit their full participation in social and economic life. Rural youth lack access to education, training, and skilling programs and are disproportionately engaged in subsistence agriculture. Young women experience structural barriers, including limited access to finance, entrepreneurial opportunities, and persistent gender inequalities in employment sectors. Youth with disabilities, representing 2% of the youth population, encounter significant barriers in employment and education due to limited accessibility, employer biases, and lack of accommodations. Their unemployment rate is nearly twice as high as that of young people without disabilities. Additionally, limited access to accurate and timely information on education, employment, and skilling opportunities further marginalizes vulnerable youth, leaving them unable to take advantage of existing programs or resources. These challenges demand tailored programs to bridge gaps and ensure inclusiveness. Health and well-being issues, such as limited access to sexual and reproductive health services, risky sexual behavior, and a rise in adolescent pregnancies, compound youth challenges. Only 13.6% of health facilities offer youth-friendly services, and modern contraceptive prevalence is significantly low among adolescents (33%). HIV prevalence among youth is also concerning, with rising new infections among adolescents.

Youth are at the core of the Rwanda National development agenda. The National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) aims to create 1.25 million Jobs (250,000 annually). As per NST2, this will be achieved by enhancing entrepreneurship and improving access to resources (such as finance, business advisory services, and equipment) for Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) with strong job creation potential. Key sectors will include agro-processing, service sector jobs such as global business services (GBS), tech start-ups and the creative industry. Special focus will also be placed on employment initiatives for youth and women, leveraging on community-based approaches in infrastructure, environmental protection and agricultural extension programs’’. Emphasis will also be put on skills development through workplace learning, employability skills for youth, and strengthened labour market systems through initiatives such as internships, apprenticeships and re-skilling programs. Finally, another priority is to accelerate the transformation towards a knowledge-based economy through major investments in digital literacy, equipping the Rwandan population with the necessary skills to fully benefit from digital transformation and prepare the youth for future jobs. ‘’To develop skills for the ICT sector and prepare the youth for future jobs, 1 million coders will be trained, and 500,000 people will be equipped with advanced ICT skills.’’

It is within that framework that this assignment aims to conduct a Youth forecast exercise to anticipate future trends, challenges, and opportunities that may share the lives of young people in the coming years.

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