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Supporting the South African Government to develop a socio-economic impact analy
Procurement Process
RFP - Request for proposal
Office
UNDP-ZAF - SOUTH AFRICA
Deadline
01-Dec-25 @ 10:00 AM (New York time)
Published on
17-Nov-25 @ 12:00 AM (New York time)
Reference Number
UNDP-ZAF-00183
Contact
Procurement Unit - procurement.enquiries.za@undp.org
Introduction
[SCOPE OF TENDER......]
The objective of this work is to develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and to determine how South Africa can best implement net-zero pathways while minimising or improving the impact on economic growth, employment, income inequality, and financial stabilility.
The key outcomes of this work include a) developing a scientific model using a stochastic computable general equilibrium approach to analyze the socio-economic impacts of alternative pathways to net zero by 2050, and b) providing recommendations on how to enhance the socio-economic benefits of alternative net zero pathways and address the negative impacts through just-transition.
The selected firm will be expected to deliver the following outputs:
1. A comprehensive literature review will be conducted to understand the existing research on computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling of the socioeconomic impacts of low-emissions development strategies globally, and with a detailed review of the CGE modelling landscape of South Africa.
2. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is built to replicate the South African economy to be used for the research questions at hand and for future studies.
3. A mechanism to estimate the biophysical impacts of climate change on macro-critical sectors, typically done under the CIMP6 climate ensembles and IPCC AR6 Summaries. SSP socioeconomic scenarios/RCP forcing scenarios are used to align the model with different emissions pathways. Damage channels translate climate shocks to generate the sectoral physical shocks that are projected to hit the economy under alternative pathways to net-zero (business-as-usual serving as a default reference scenario). The physical shocks are mapped to economic shocks. Alternative methods for incorporating the predicted impacts of climate change in modelling the business-as-usual (BAU) trajectory for important sectors could also be considered.
4. The climate damage data or shocks is coupled with the DSGE to generate the sectoral and socioeconomic impacts of climate change under alternative pathways to net-zero.
5. A curated dataset with worksheets of data used for calibrating the different stages of the sequential work above as well as the alternative pathways to net-zero is prepared.
6. Additionally, a training guide detailing the modelling approach, inputs and assumptions is prepared to develop the capacity of DFFE to utilise and calibrate the model internally for future modelling endeavours.
7. A report presenting the estimation results of the socio-economic impact analysis that includes a comparison of alternative pathways to net-zero weighed against a climate-impacted BAU, and policy recommendations for enhancing socio-economic benefits and addressing negative impacts. The key socioeconomic impacts to investigate are economic growth, poverty, inequality, employment and related pathways across the sectors and economic agents.
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[UNDP OFFICE SOUTH AFRICA
PROCUREMENT UNIT]