National Technical Consultant

1. PROJECT TITLE

Rapid Socio-economic Impact Assessment of COVID-19 in Mindanao and BARMM

Joint Research of UNDP Philippines and the Mindanao Development Authority

1. BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing substantive losses among farmers, enterprises and businesses affecting the whole value and supply chains resulting to losses in jobs, income, productivity, among others.  The National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) estimated PhP428.7 billion to PhP1.355 trillion forgone Gross Value Added (GVA) outputs (considered the following: transport, tourism, exports, remittances, consumption and Luzon-enhanced community quarantine).  Given that nine (9) out of 10 poorest provinces are in Mindanao, the COVID-19 impact obviously will be much in the island region, more so in the Bangsamoro Administrative Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), with four (4) of its provinces in the 10 poorest provinces of the country.

While there are already initial studies done on the possible impact of the pandemic to the socio-economic lives of the Filipinos, the Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA) has expressed the need to complement NEDA and the Department of Finance (DOF) impact assessments in the context of the peculiar setting of Mindanao vis-à-vis BARMM and the role of Mindanao in the Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippine-East Asian Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA), which needs a more focused/in-depth socio-economic study.  Moreover, the MinDA is now updating the Mindanao 2020 Peace and Development Framework Plan, which the pandemic impact will have substantive effect on the short, medium and long-term policies, plans and programs under the “new normal” condition brought by the COVID-19. 

In the newly established BARMM the pandemic is expected to worsen the already deplorable condition of the population. Existing vulnerabilities can get worse and will put undue pressure to the newly established government tied up with the challenges of transition.  A comprehensive study of the socio-economic impact of the pandemic can help the new government in crafting its recovery plan.  It will also be a valuable input to the review and finalization of the BARMM’s regional development plan which was recently passed but the “new normal” resulting from the COVID-19 the pandemic is not yet considered.

Rationale for the Consultancy

UNDP supports the endeavors of MinDA and the Bangsamoro Planning and Development Authority (BPDA) to understand the socio-economic impact of COVID-19, specifically, to help in the early recovery and recovery of the most-affected and vulnerable groups in Mindanao and BARMM. Guided by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the UN remains committed to leaving no one behind. The risks of overlooking and neglecting the rights of people are great and grave, because time is of essence and resources are limited.

UNDP seeks to engage one (1) National Technical Consultant and six (6) Senior Technical Consultants who shall closely work together to conduct assessments in the following regions and sub-region in Mindanao: (1) Region 9 – Zamboanga Peninsula; (2) Region 10 – Northern Mindanao; (3) Region 11 – Davao Region; (4) Region 12 – SOCCSKSARGEN; (5) Region 13 – CARAGA; and (6) BARMM. The National Technical Consultant shall serve as the focal in line with coordination with partners and shall take the lead in consolidating all the regional assessments and writing the final assessment report.

All Consultants shall be under the supervision of the UNDP Team Leaders of Peace Team, Institutions and Partnerships Team and the Impact Advisory Team. They are also expected to work closely with the UNDP Cotabato Field office.

Duties and Responsibilities

SCOPE OF WORK

The National Technical Consultant shall take the primary role of consolidating inputs from the Senior Technical Consultants. He/she shall be responsible in coordinating with MinDA and other partners.

The main objective of the study is to assess the social and economic impact of COVID-19 in Mindanao, and BARMM. The assessment will include major impact channeling mechanisms including direct and indirect (can then be summarized graphically). This could be structured according to a) Major channeling mechanisms; b) Impacts; and, c) Policy recommendations and further sub-divide policy recommendations according to short, medium and long term and different types of policy measures (with a focus on most vulnerable and at-risk groups).

The following are some of the major consideration for the assessment:

1. Assess the impact on food value chains and food security. With Mindanao being isolated from the rest of the country, how much of food does Mindanao produce and how much of basic foods were sourced out from outside and how links to markets for farmers were affected. 
2. Effect of excess production to the producers;
3. Security to input materials for food production (e.g. fertilizers, pesticides, animal vaccines, medicines, etc.);
4. Complementation of production and the logistics sector;
5. Quantification of the actual and opportunity economic costs of the closure of businesses, halting or slowing down of most of the economic activities and how these impacted Mindanao;
6. Quantification of the income lost by households including those operating as daily workers, farmers and other sectors;
7. Impact to SMEs, low income groups, self-employed, migrant workers and other vulnerable groups;
8. Impact on the travel, tourism, arts and entertainment industries;
9. Impact to the manufacturers of non-essential items and their value chain;
10. Quantify how much is needed to support Mindanao’s social amelioration interventions and recommend how and where these funds can be sourced/generated and identify capacity gaps in utilizing and managing funds and how that can be addressed;
11. Examine the potential reversals on human development - on access to eduction, health service delivery and standard of living of the popualtion, within this frameowrk identifiy the diffrenciated impact of the pandamic by gender, age, and socio-eocnomic status;
12. Examine the potential reversals on the Sustainable Development Goals
13. Identify the impact on mobility of people, goods and services;
14. Assess the way restrictions in mobility of people impacted peace building efforts and service delivery including social protection interventions;
15. Assess the impact of COVID-19 on exclusion of the population feeding into extremist narratives;
16. Identify recovery needs to help restore services and assist the most affected groups to resume their lives and livelihoods with improved conditions.
17. Assess, if any, role can be played by private sector in Philippines to support recovery efforts in Mindanao.
18. Specifically, for BARMM, assess the impact of COVID-19 on the deliverables and milestones outlined in the Bangsamoro transition plan and the Bangsamoro Organic Law.

The results of the rapid assessment will input in identifying/prioritizing immediate and short-term interventions to help in the early recovery and recovery of the most-affected and critical sectors and to mitigate impacts of the crisis on most-affected populations. It will also include, recommendations for the medium and long-term development interventions especially with a greener and more inclusive and sustainable economic transformation, which is both risk and conflict informed.)

In developing the final socio-economic impact assessment report, these are some of the major considerations:

1. Recommend the phasing with timeframe for the appropriate amelioration program (what should be the amelioration package for the 1st three (3) months, six (6) months and 12 months (with specific interventions for groups identified as most vulnerable);
2. Recommend which industries that are critical to recovery will be assisted and what types of support can be provided;
3. Map available and proposed financial programs for the recovery of MSMEs;
4. Recommend the roles and functions of the national and local governments in the early recovery, recovery and rehabilitation and long-term development phase;
5. Recommend institutional mechanisms and policy measures to be undertaken in support of the recovery, including measures in place to prevent and mitigate a crisis of similar nature in future
6. Recommend policies and regulations that must be done to ensure that government agencies, local government units and other duty bearers (including key stakeholders) have the resources, capacities and institutional structure to manage the same crisis;
7. Identify appropriate immediate and short-term support for the economic drivers under the early recovery and recovery period (e.g. food, agriculture, fisheries and retail enterprises, among others);
8. Identify appropriate immediate and short-term support that will jumpstart the early recovery and recovery of affected sectors (farmers, fisher folks, vulnerable groups, micro and small enterprises) as well as the rehabilitation, medium-term and long-term support for medium enterprises and other economic drivers critical to medium and long-term development of Mindanao. (This considers how policy responses can be structured to build towards long-term inclusive and sustainable economic vision for Mindanao. e.g. measures that support economic diversification, structural transformation. Also incorporates recovery, sustainability, and SDG lens);
9. Recommend “new normal” policies and programs/projects in the affected sectors;
10. Recommend “emerging” and “adaptive” enterprises under the pandemic conditions and the same emerging/adaptive” enterprises that transition toward early recovery and recovery phases; and,
11. Identify humanitarian logistics challenges and what should be put in place to manage the same crisis.

Specifically, on the assessment works for BARMM, the National Technical Consultant must consider the results of the UNDP rapid assessment of the socio-economic impact assessment of COVID-19 in the region. Gaps in the study must be identified to ensure alignment towards this assessment initiative.

Alignment of Rapid Impact Assessment Design / Methodology and Focus of Analyses Recommendations

1. Align with the NEDA Rapid Impact or Full-Blown Impact Assessment Framework/Methodology
2. Consider the nuances of Mindanao and BARMM as well as the role of Mindanao in the Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippine-East Asian Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA)
3. Focus on what economic drivers and critical sectors need immediate and short-term early recovery and recovery (first 3 months and next six months support) but already considers the short, medium and long-term impacts (along with their recommended policies and programs/projects)
4. Drill down on the Mindanao nuances in terms of most-affected populations and sectors/areas and the economic drivers that need immediate and short-term interventions for early or fast recovery;
5. Identify measures in policy and programmes to incorporate the needs of the most vulnerable groups;
6. Consider that Mindanao has 9 out of 10 poorest provinces in the country

SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES AND DELIVERABLES

Payments will be done upon satisfactory completion of the deliverables by target due dates. Outputs will be reviewed and certified by the Team Leaders - the Peace Team, Institutions and Partnerships Team and the Impact Advisory Team, in consultation with the focal of MinDA.

To ensure quality of outputs, MinDA and UNDP shall establish a Research Reference Group compose of relevant government agencies, CSOs and other potential stakeholder who are knowledgeable on Mindanao and BARMM’s socio-economic and peace contexts and are able to provide significant inputs to the socio-economic impact assessment works. 

The Consultant is expected to complete the following deliverables:

The Consultant shall consider at least three (3) working days lead time for UNDP to review outputs, give comments, certify approval/acceptance of outputs, etc. 

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS

• The National Technical Consultant shall be under the supervision of the Team Leaders of the Impact Advisory Team, Institutions and Partnerships Team and the Peace Team. He/she will take primary role of coordinating with MinDA and other partners. He/she shall also consolidate inputs from the Senior Technical Consultants.
• Joint oversight and implementation management arrangement will be exercised by UNDP, and the Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA). To closely work with the Consultant, MinDA shall designate focal/s.
• For alignment with the other regional assessments in Mindanao, the consultant shall closely coordinate with other consultants in-charge of other regions in Mindanao and BARMM.
• Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of community quarantine in the country, all works of the consultant shall be done within the guidelines and protocols set by the national and local government.

DURATION OF WORK

The Consultant shall be engaged for 22 working days from September to October 2021.

DUTY STATION AND TRAVEL

 Home-based. Work will be done remotely and communication to partners should be done online.

Competencies

Required Skills and Experience

QUALIFICATIONS FOR UNDERTAKING THE ASSIGNMENT AND EVALUATION CRITERIA

The IC should meet the following minimum qualification:

• At least a Master’s Degree in Economics, Statistics, Business Administration, Social Science, or any related field.

Experience

• At least 10 years of relevant research experience in the areas of socio-economic impact assessment, rural development, policy evaluation, modeling, and econometrics; work experience with the Mindanao Development Authority, other government institutions, or multilateral development organization an advantage.
• Has experience leading at least 1 project related to the conduct of regional socio-economic impact assessment in Mindanao and BARMM

Applications from qualified candidates will be desk reviewed by the UNDP Philippines’ selection panel.

SCOPE OF PRICE PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

The Consultant should send a financial proposal based on a lump-sum amount for the delivery of the outputs. The total amount quoted shall include all costs of components required to deliver the services identified above, such as Professional daily fee X number of person-days for the project, supplies, and mobile communications

The contract price will be a fixed output-based price. Any deviations from the outputs and timelines will need to be agreed upon between the Consultant and UNDP and will be implemented upon issuance of contract amendment.

Medical/health insurance must be purchased by the individual at his/her own expense, and upon award of contract, the Consultant must be ready to submit proof of insurance valid during the contract duration.

Payments will be done upon satisfactory completion of the deliverables by target due dates. Outputs will be reviewed and certified by the Team Leaders of – Impact Advisory Team, Peace Team, and the Institutions and Partnership Team of UNDP, prior to the release of payments.

Furthermore, contracts will only be issued subject to the confirmation that the Consultant is covered under personal health/medical and other insurances.

RECOMMENDED PRESENTATION OF OFFER

Interested and qualified candidates should submit their applications including the following:

• Duly accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability
• UNDP Personal History Form (P11) or detailed Curriculum Vitae (CV)
• Financial Proposal that indicates the all-inclusive fixed total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, per template provided. Medical/health insurance must be purchased by the individual at his/her own expense, and upon award of contract, the consultant must be ready to submit proof of insurance valid during the contract duration
• Three references attesting to the above competencies and experience

?CRITERIA FOR SELECTION OF THE BEST OFFER

The Offers received will be evaluated using a combined scoring method - where qualifications will be weighted 70 points and combined with the price offer which will be weighted 30 points.  

The CV will be reviewed using the criteria in the table below. Only offerors who will obtain a minimum of 60 out of 70 obtainable points will be shortlisted and considered eligible for evaluation of the financial proposal. 

Offerors must upload in one (1) file the aforementioned documents.

Templates for a) P11 Personal History Form and b)  Offeror's Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability and Financial Proposal (Annex 2) are available through the link below. UNDP General Terms and Conditions for Individual Contractors  are also available:

http://gofile.me/6xdJm/bE9TCw8fU

Incomplete submission of required documents may result in disqualification.

Please see the deadline of submissions above.

In view of the volume of applications, UNDP receives, only shortlisted offerors will be notified.

You may apply directly here: UNDP Jobs - 100602- National Technical Consultant