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Individual Consultant - Demography Expert
Procurement Process :IC - Individual contractor
Office :Saudi Arabia - SAUDI ARABIA
Deadline :15-Jan-22
Posted on :08-Jan-22
Development Area :CONSULTANTS  CONSULTANTS
Reference Number :87103
Link to Atlas Project :
00138017 - Engaging Universities and Colleges Students in SDGs
Documents :
TORs
IC GT&C
IC_Offerors Letter to UNDP Confirming Interest and Availability
Overview :

The interested offeror must submit the application via the following link

https://jobs.undp.org/cj_view_job.cfm?cur_job_id=104057

 

Terms of reference for Individual Contractor

Post Title:

Demography Expert

Excepted Starting Date

ASAP

Duration:

The expected duration of the work is up 10 working days 

Location

Home-based

Project/Agency:

100619 - Institutional Support to Statistics

National or International consultancy

International Consultant

 

  1. General background information relevant to the assignment

Over the last four decades, Saudi Arabia has realised and sustained remarkable progress along the socio-economic development path, with many sectors of the economy contributing and benefiting.

As a result, the Kingdom becomes a high-income country with all the means of a promising and sustainable future. The GDP, for instance, increased from SR156 billion in 1969 to SR 2,631 billion in 2018, putting the economy among the top 20 global economies in terms of size.

 

Saudi Arabia developed the Saudi Vision 2030 as a strategic framework with long-term goals and expectations, founded on the strengths and capabilities of the Kingdom, to achieve long-term and sustainable economic success. The three themes of Saudi Vision 2030 (a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation represent a holistic approach to development that encompasses the three dimensions of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): the social, the economic and the environmental.  Saudi Arabia recognises that achieving Saudi Vision 2030 and the SDGs requires rigorous, instant and continuous monitoring for which quality statistics is a must.

 

Under the framework of the Institutional Support to Statistics Project, UNDP provides technical support to the General Authority for Statistics (GAStat) to strengthen the institutional and human capacities of the national statistical system to support evidence-based development planning and policy-making. The project support is aligned to the five pillars of the corporate strategy of GAStat to enable the institution    deliver its mandate and achieve its vision.

 

 

 

The project is looking to recruit a demography expert reviewer for a manuscript: population estimate methodology.

  1. The objectives of the assignment  

The objective of this assignment is to review “population estimate methodology” which is developed as a method that can re-estimate the total population size of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. midyear 2021 as well as the number of female and male per nationality for each yearly age group based on realistic natural change, and migration rate after the impact of COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  The methodology used Cohort Component Method (demographic balancing equation) which uses the components of demographic change to estimate population growth. The method estimates the population by age groups, in addition to other attributes such as sex and nationality. The estimation is based on the component of demographic change, including births, deaths, and migrations. The main three components are considered by using national administrative data.

He/she will undertake the tasks under this assignment in close coordination with CTA and population department at GAStat as relevant.

  1. Outline of the Deliverables:
  • A detailed review report including a section per population estimate methodology, methodology application steps, the estimation model, dataset quality and model output.
  • Working Software code (using one of:  R/STATA/SAS/SPSS)to run the methodology (with copy write for GAStat)
  1.  Duties and responsibilities

The following will be the primary responsibilities of the Demography Expert:

 

#

Task

Anticipated working days

2

  • Review the manuscript: population estimate methodology
  • Validate methodology application steps as per the manuscript 

1 day

 

2

  • Validate the estimation model (function)

2 days

3

  • Validate dataset quality and administrative data quality  
  • Validate model output

3 days

4

  • Program and run the methodology using (R/STATA/SAS/SPSS) to display the output.

2 days

5

  • Detailed review report.

2 days

 

 

  1. Institutional Arrangement

     The consultant will report to the Programme Analyst in coordination with relevant staff from GSTAT.  

 

  1. The duration of the assignment

The overall duration of this assignment is 10 working days.

 

  1. The duty station and expected places of travel, if any

Homebased, no travel is required to undertake this assignment.

 

  1. Financial arrangements:  

 

All proposals must be expressed in a lump sum amount. This amount must be “all-inclusive”. Please note that the terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the proposal.

Payments shall be made to the individual contractor upon successful completion and certification by UNDP that services have been satisfactorily performed, based upon the actual number of working days.

Payment shall be made as a deliverables-based lump upon the receipt of the deliverables and certification of satisfactory performance by CTA.

 

 

  1. Required Skills and Experience
    1.  Education:

PhD in Demography or Statistics

  1. b. Experience
  • 10 years in population estimate & forecast 
  • Excellent knowledge in The Cohort Component Method (demographic balancing equation) 
  • At least two mission in population demography within the last two years.
  • Applied experience in census/survey methods and data collection and analysis.
  • A minimum of 5 years practical experience in the field of vital statistic, migration statistics. 
  • Sound understanding of issues of population growth in GCC and Saudi context
  • Excellent knowledge in administrative data/records  and quality test
  • Experience with National statistical offices (GCC) will be an advantage.
  • Experience with ONE OF UNDP/UNFPA/UNstat/Eurostat
  • Experience in GCC Region.

 

  1. Competencies:

Functional competencies:

  • Results-oriented and ability to achieve project targets in the deadlines.
  • Ability to independently manage multiple assignments, work with limited direct supervision and capability to work under pressure to manage and achieve project objectives.
  •  Excellent interpersonal skills, including the ability to establish strong cooperative relationships with government officials.
  • Good understanding and practice of capacity development.
  • Excellent communication, facilitation, presentation and reporting skills.

Corporate competencies:

  • Demonstrates integrity and fairness by modelling UN values and ethical standards;
  • Demonstrates professional competence and is conscientious and efficient in meeting commitments, observing deadlines and achieving results;
  • Display cultural, gender, religion and age sensitivity and adaptability.

 

  1. Language: 

Excellent command of English, working knowledge of Arabic would be considered an asset

 

For purposes of generating Offers whose contents are uniformly presented and to facilitate their comparative analysis, it is best to recommend the preferred contents and presentation of the Offer to be submitted, as well as the format/sequencing of their presentation. The following documents may be requested:

 

 

  1. Duly accomplished Letter of Confirmation of Interest and Availability using the template provided by UNDP.
  2. Personal CV or P11, indicating all experience from similar projects, as well as the contact details (email and telephone number) of the Candidate and at least three (3) professional references.
  3. Attach at least three publication titles submitted to international organizations as a reference.
  4. Attach number of videos that the consultant worked on as references.
  5. Brief description of why the individual considers him/herself as the most suitable for the assignment
  6. Financial Proposal that indicates the all-inclusive total contract price, supported by a breakdown of costs, as per template provided. The terms “all-inclusive” implies that all costs (professional fees, travel costs, living allowances, communications, consumables, etc.) that could possibly be incurred are already factored into the final amounts submitted in the Proposal. If an Offeror is employed by an organization/company/institution, and he/she expects his/her employer to charge a management fee in the process of releasing him/her to UNDP under Reimbursable Loan Agreement (RLA), the Offeror must indicate at this point, and ensure that all such costs are duly incorporated in the financial Proposal submitted to UNDP.

 

  1. EVALUATION

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodologies:

Step I: Screening and desk review:

Individual consultants will be evaluated based on the following methodology.

Technical Criteria (CV review and Desk Review/Interview optional) – maximum 70 points. Only candidates who obtained at least 70% of points from the CV desk review (who will score at least 49 points) will be considered for the next evaluation stage, i.e. financial evaluation.

Applications will be first screened and only candidates meeting the following minimum criteria will progress to the pool for shortlisting:

  • 10 years in population estimate & forecast 
  • Excellent knowledge in The Cohort Component Method (demographic balancing equation) 
  • At least two mission in population demography within the last two years.
  • Applied experience in census/survey methods and data collection and analysis.
  • A minimum of 5 years practical experience in the field of vital statistic, migration statistics. 
  • Sound understanding of issues of population growth in GCC and Saudi context
  • Excellent knowledge in administrative data/records  and quality test
  • Experience with National statistical offices (GCC) will be an advantage.
  • Experience with ONE OF UNDP/UNFPA/UNstat/Eurostat
  • Experience in GCC Region.

 

 

Only candidates obtaining a minimum of 49 points (70% of the total technical points) would be considered for the Financial Evaluation.

Weight Per Technical Competence

5 (outstanding): 96% - 100%

The individual consultant/contractor has demonstrated an OUTSTANDING capacity for the analyzed competence.

4 (Very good): 86% - 95%

The individual consultant/contractor has demonstrated a VERY GOOD capacity for the analyzed competence.

3 (Good): 76% - 85%

The individual consultant/contractor has demonstrated a GOOD capacity for the analyzed competence.

2 (Satisfactory): 70% - 75%

The individual consultant/contractor has demonstrated a SATISFACTORY capacity for the analyzed competence.

1 (Weak): Below 70%

The individual consultant/contractor has demonstrated a WEAK capacity for the analyzed competence.

 

UNDP applies the “Best value for money approach” – the final selection will be based on the combination of the applicants’ qualification and financial proposal.

 

Financial proposal – Maximum 30 points

  • Duly accomplished Confirmation of Interest and Submission of Financial Proposal Template using the template provided by UNDP (Annex II)

PRICE PROPOSAL AND SCHEDULE OF PAYMENTS

 

The contractor shall submit a price proposal as below:

The total professional fee shall be converted into a lump-sum contract and payments under the contract shall be made on submission and acceptance of deliverables under the contract in accordance with the schedule of payment linked with deliverables. Financial proposal should include all relevant cost (consultancy fees, all envisaged travel costs, living allowances, etc.).

 

Financial evaluation - Total 30% (30 points)

The following formula will be used to evaluate the financial proposal:

p = y (µ/z), where

p = points for the financial proposal being evaluated

y = maximum number of points for the financial proposal

µ = price of the lowest-priced proposal

z = price of the proposal being evaluated

 

Interested applicants are advised to carefully review this advertisement and ensure that they meet the requirements and qualifications described. 


Given the volume of applications that UNDP receives, only shortlisted offerors will be notified.

 

 

UNDP reserves the right to reject any incomplete applications.

Please be informed that we don’t accept applications submitted via email.

 

Interested Offerors are required to submit an application via UNDP Jobsite system as the application screening and evaluation will be done through UNDP Jobsite system. Please note that UNDP Jobsite system allows only one uploading of application documents, so please make sure that you merge all your documents into a single file. Your online application submission will be acknowledged where an email address has been provided. If you do not receive an email acknowledgement within 24 hours of submission, your application may not have been received. In such cases, please resubmit the application if necessary. Please combine all your documents into one (1) single PDF document as the system only allows to upload a maximum one document.

Any request for clarification/additional information on this procurement notice shall be communicated in writing to UNDP office or send to email mohammed.abbas@undp.org with a copy to nora.alzahid@undp.org  While the Procurement Unit would endeavour to provide information expeditiously, only requests receiving at least 3 working days prior to the submission deadline will be entertained. Any delay in providing such information will not be considered as a reason for extending the submission deadline. The UNDP's response (including an explanation of the query but without identifying the source of inquiry) will be posted in the Individual Consultant (IC) Procurement Notice page as provided above. Therefore, all prospective Offerors are advised to visit the page regularly to make obtain update related to this Individual Consultant (IC) Procurement Notice

UNDP is committed to achieving workforce diversity in terms of gender, nationality and culture. Individuals from minority groups, indigenous groups and persons with disabilities are equally encouraged to apply. All applications will be treated with the strictest confidence.

UNDP does not tolerate sexual exploitation and abuse, any kind of harassment, including sexual harassment and discrimination. All selected candidates will, therefore, undergo rigorous reference and background checks.

 

Annexes:

Annex-1 – Template Confirmation of Interest and Submission of Financial Proposal.

Annex-2 – Individual Consultant General Terms and Conditions.

Annex 3 : TOR

 

Forms are available on the following link 

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zwnm3ns28iavyeh/AAA7bhxAjH5lxAWmiNnJBjksa?dl=0 

 

 

This TOR is approved by:

 

Signature                            

Name and Designation 

Date of Signing