| Overview : Title: A Futures Trends and Signals System for UNDP UNDP works with countries to expand people’s choices for a fairer, sustainable future. UNDP’s new Strategic Plan 2022-25 aims to build a more agile, anticipatory UNDP that embraces complexity, actively manages risk, continually adapts and seeks to learn alongside delivering results. To build this more agile, anticipatory UNDP – an organization ready to respond to many different possible futures – we need the capacity to consider futures proactively and systematically. This means seeking a diversity of perspectives – including those very different from our own - that will push us beyond our usual ways of perceiving the world. UNDP already recognizes that foresight is an integral part of becoming more agile and anticipatory. The Strategic Plan development interrogated possible futures, the dynamics of change and disruption, and how to design for complexity and uncertainty. Thousands of signals were analysed in the process, and a landscape paper was produced, sketching some of the global trends relevant to UNDP and its future. The UNDP Executive Office Strategy and Futures Team (S&F Team) is looking to build a dynamic Future Trends and Signals System to continuously capture trends and signals and turn them into actionable intelligence for decision-making. The system is intended to be a participatory foresight tool into which the UNDP community inputs (by picking up signals and extrapolating trends), and then uses the outputs to make better decisions (eg strategic foresight in planning processes). UNDP This RFP encompasses strategic foresight advisory services for the design of the dynamic Future Trends and Signals System (FTSS). It does not require the provider to build the system; UNDP will use its existing capabilities and internal resources to build the system, based on the design co-created by the service provider and the S&F team. Advise the Strategy and Futures Team on the various methodologies and best practice available to continuously capture and curate trends and signals (within and outside UNDP) and infer meaning relevant to the future of development and to UNDP. Provide options and advise on the best way to design and structure such a system taking account UNDP’s areas of work, geographic presence and its Strategic Plan objectives. The solutions provided should be developed in close collaboration with the Strategy and Futures Team and other UNDP stakeholders. For the design of the system, the service provider should consider the following attributes – at a minimum: The structure of the system’s content (e.g., signals, trends, drivers, STEEP category, time horizon, etc.) The type of data to be captured in the system (quantitative and qualitative). The relevant UNDP-specific dynamic categories and tags (eg areas of work, themes, geographies) to be used. The roles and responsibilities of different users (including those who input signals; those who analyse signals and identify trends; and those who consult the system for insights) Advise on how best to identify and select users to enter signals and data into the system, and provide training to select users. Advise on the best approach to encourage inputs, including “weak” signals, from a diverse range of UNDP users (by region, age etc), including: a) incentives to contribute, and b) creating a “safe space” to contribute freely. Advise on how and what kind of curation is required to gather insights (eg to identify trends from signals; to infer meaning for UNDP) Advise on possible external sources UNDP can continuously scan to find signals. Propose ways to translate data in the system into usable materials for strategy reviews, scenario building, trend reports or other occasions when a quick read of the landscape is needed. Note: The UNDP team developing the system will ensure that it meets the following technical requirements - in addition to allowing for the attributes listed above : User-friendly and intuitive, easily updated and searchable. Updated in real time as users input new signals and trends (possibly linked automatically to existing lists of signals under similar categories from which users can select) Sorted by UNDP-specific dynamic categories and tags (eg areas of work, themes, geographies) Find a reasonable balance between “ease of input” and the degree of curation required (eg to identify trends from signals; to infer meaning for UNDP) Enable the identification of changes made to the system, by date and by user Have an overview page - with the latest trends and signals, ideally combining qualitative signals and quantitative data – that is clear and easy to understand. Allow for at least 100 users to enter data, with capacity to expand to at least 2,000 users Adjustable (eg adding new categories and tags; revising layout) Compatible with and easily integrated into UNDP’s systems and softwares, including Microsoft tools, such as Microsoft Viva (contents being discoverable by Viva). Easy to access with password protection linked to UNDP’s Single Sign On (SSO) Able to handle varied types of inputs (text, data, audio/video files, links to media etc), both from within UNDP and outside Easily supply material for strategy reviews, scenarios, trend reports or other occasions when a quick read of the current landscape is needed (eg by automatically creating trend cards) Allow users to ‘upvote’ most relevant signals. Allow users to ‘pin’ or ‘save’ signals into curated collections of signals and subscribe to updates on signals of particular interest Search analytics to help tune the system to be more responsive to what users are looking for; and that reveal users’ patterns of interest or outliers (eg by analysing users’ “pinned” signals) Able to mine data from UNDP’s own data and knowledge resources, including possibly using AI Able to expand to all UNDP users Have potential to be expanded for public use outside UNDP Pilot the database with a few UNDP teams identified by the Strategy and Futures Team, and make adjustments as required. Support the UNDP team by pre-populating signals from external sources into the database, as well as emerging trends relevant to UNDP’s Strategic Plan. Advise and provide methodologies to turn the trends and signals into actionable intelligence for decision-making. This could be in the form of templates, guidance notes, sensemaking exercises and suggested questions to curate conversations around the trends and signals, and possibly automatically-generated reports that automatically pre-select trends and signals of interest to a particular team, country or region. Offer training on maintaining the trends and signals database (how to contribute, curate and use). This includes providing simple training materials and tutorials for future use after the contract is over. Provide one year of advisory services after training is complete. Work with the Strategy and Futures team to identify (drawing on the signals system and other sources) signals and trends that should be included in a short (10 page) report. (The report, to be written by UNDP, will highlight signals and trends that should be on UNDP’s radar but are not, eg signals of deviance, emergent or curious things that don’t fit the usual patterns.) Roadmap and detailed plan to create a Future Trends and Signals System Provide options and a proposal for a design structure of the Trends and Signals System Pilot the use of the system with select teams, including through workshops, and advise on adjustments as necessary Provide guidance on methodologies to turn the insights into actionable intelligence. Produce training materials and tutorials and carry out at least 6 training sessions to initial cadre of staff using the database. Identify (drawing on the signals system and other sources) signals and trends that should be included in UNDP’s report. Executive Office’s Strategy and Futures Team. Regular interactions and engagement with the Strategy and Futures team will be required to ensure the system is designed and rolled out effectively. Four short and concise progress reports will be required at the end of: Month 3: After developing the database Month 6: After training is conducted Month 12: After 6 months of maintenance and technical support Month 18: After 1 year of maintnenace and technical support ☒ At Contractor’s Location Engagement with UNDP will be done remotely / virtually. 1.5 years: 6 months of accompanying the development of the system & 1 year of advisory services Deliverables timeline listed below: Due within first 2 weeks: Roadmap and detailed plan to create the Futures Trends and Signals Database Due within Month 1: Provide options and a proposal for a design structure of the Trends and Signals System Due within Month 4-5: Pilot the system with select teams and make adjustments as necessary Due by Month 6: Provide guidance on methodologies to turn the insights into actionable intelligence. Training materials designed and training sessions offered to initial cadre of staff using the database. Month 7-18: Identify (drawing on the signals system and other sources) signals and trends that should be included in UNDP’s report Advisory services | 
